2026 Midterm Elections: The blue wave is turning into a tsunami

If the polls are even remotely accurate, a blue wave – blue being the colour of the Democrats – will sweep over the Republican Party during the election on 3 November. All the signs point to the Democrats taking the House of Representatives. Yet the wave is increasingly looking like a tsunami. Weighed down by Donald Trump’s historically low approval ratings (barely above 30 per cent in some polls) and a string of weak candidates, the Republicans must now brace themselves for something that seemed unthinkable just a few months ago: a Democrat-controlled Senate.

What would a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress mean? A few things are clear. Firstly, Trump will not merely be a “lame duck” – the usual fate of a president in his second term following the mid-term elections. He and the MAGA brand are regarded as toxic, and not just amongst Democrats. As they will be blamed for the party’s defeat, Trump and his movement will have to defend their claim to leadership within the Republican Party. With an eye on the 2028 presidential election, a number of challengers will be positioning themselves.

The most likely loser in this power struggle will be Vice-President JD Vance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has recently been doing his utmost to project a presidential image, has a way out: he can leave the administration, point to supposed foreign policy successes and build his own profile. Vance has no such way out. He is chained to the deck of Trump’s stricken ship and could well go down with it.

Secondly, Rubio will not be the only one rushing for the lifeboats. From White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, high-ranking members of the administration will be looking for ways to distance themselves from the President. For many, it is a matter of professional survival: if MAGA becomes toxic, companies will think twice about hiring people closely associated with it.

Thirdly, the administration is likely to become even more unpredictable. A Democratic Senate will not simply rubber-stamp Trump’s personnel nominations. If posts remain unfilled, the administration will drift aimlessly, more at the mercy of the President’s whims than ever before.

It is less clear what the Democrats will do with their majorities. They have framed these mid-term elections as a referendum on Trump, not as a plea for a specific party programme. Yet if they win, Americans will expect answers from them. There is no shortage of problems: prices have risen faster than wages, healthcare remains unaffordable for too many, state schools are failing too many children, and infrastructure is falling into disrepair, whilst the national debt is heading towards unsustainable levels.

These are difficult problems, and many solutions will force Americans to face uncomfortable truths. The Democrats will be tempted to spend the next two years exposing the corruption of the President, his family and his friends. That would be satisfactory and perhaps even justified. But if they are not in government, they will squander a rare opportunity to reshape US politics far beyond the next two years.

Prof. James Davis is an American political scientist and teaches at the University of St.Gallen.

The German version of this article originally appeared in the Münchner Merkur on 2 November 2026.

Image: Keystone