Opinions - 14.11.2024 - 11:30
Is the US under Trump abandoning Ukraine?
Like so much of Trump's plans, his policy on Ukraine is contradictory. On the one hand, he threatens to cut US military and financial aid to Ukraine, while on the other, he proclaims that he will make America “great again”. The two are not compatible. Since the Russian invasion, the US has provided Ukraine with $175 billion in support. The US is by far Ukraine's most important arms supplier. For Ukraine, this aid is vital. However, the opposite is also true: if Ukraine is no longer able to fend off the Russian attack, this will also mean a strategic defeat for the USA. A US failure in Ukraine would also undermine Washington's authority in the eyes of Beijing – and from Trump's point of view, Beijing is the main opponent of the USA, not Moscow.
During the election campaign, Trump left no doubt that he considered Joe Biden's policy on Ukraine to be completely misguided, and he, in turn, grandiosely promised that he would broker a peace within 24 hours. He stated that Selenskyj should have made a deal with Russia immediately after the Russian invasion. The interjection is indicative of Trump's attitude towards world politics. He is concerned with minimising costs, but at the same time dreams of a strong America that is respected worldwide and can push through its agenda.
Trump relies on simple politics
Abstract values such as democracy, the rule of law or international solidarity play no role for him. For Trump, there are no partners with whom a community of trust can be built, but at best business partners. Trump's preference consists of enforcing his political views through a simple policy of “carrot” and “stick”. He gave the most blatant example of this last February. He once again threatened to withdraw US support for NATO if the member states continued to fail to meet the two-percent target. He even went so far as to say that Russia could “do whatever the hell it wants” to NATO countries that did not pay enough. This can be dismissed as the usual bluster from Trump.
But it is also possible that with this formulation, Trump was already outlining the size of the cudgel that he intends to brandish in his security policy. At the same time, he is keen to emphasise his privileged communication channel with the Russian warlord Putin. This includes a report of a telephone conversation in which Trump is said to have asked Putin to stop escalating the war in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov has called this report fake news. However, the report of such a conversation could be the first sign of an attempt by Trump to increase international attention of an impending deal in Ukraine. The denial from Moscow may also be related to the Logan Act of 1799, which prohibits private individuals in the United States from negotiating with foreign governments…And Trump is a private individual until 20 January.
However, it is questionable whether Trump will be able to bring about a quick solution to the war in Ukraine. He wants to mediate between Kiev and Moscow. But Putin has already rejected this simple arrangement. From Putin's point of view, Ukraine is not a subject of negotiation, but an object of negotiation, whose fate should be decided by the two major powers, the USA and Russia.
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schmid is a professor of Eastern European Studies at the University of St.Gallen (HSG) and his research interests include Ukrainian culture and society. His research also has a particular orientation towards the politics of history in Poland and media and politics in Russia.
This opinion piece was first published in the Schaffhauser Nachrichten.
Image: Adobe Stock / Oleksii