How to best evacuate civilians during war

Evacuating at-risk civilians during an armed invasion is of critical importance to their survival. In Ukraine, the government has relied on message alerts to inform and protect citizens from potential harm and until recently, their effectiveness has been largely untested. The study, with an early working paper available in late 2022, provides the first causal evidence on how evacuation messages influence civilian responses during an armed conflict. It also provides a detailed clarification of civilians’ evacuation decisions through a comprehensive survey.  

Since then, the research project has been continually updated and used to inform Ukrainian officials responsible for the evacuation of citizens. The updated and finalized study has now been published: Civilian Evacuation During War: Evidence from Ukraine.  

While text-based “nudges", like the ones utilised in Ukraine, have been studied in other contexts, their effectiveness in encouraging evacuation during armed conflict remains under-explored. The team conducted a controlled survey in Ukraine in July 2022—during the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion. The authors tested two main types of interventions: (1) persuasive nudges using message framing, and (2) the provision of concrete evacuation plans with actionable details. By varying the framing and informational content of automated alert messages, the researchers were able to measure the effectiveness of them. The survey allows to link these experimental findings to actual evacuation decisions taken during the first months of the full-scale invasion.  

Key Findings

The relevant results of the study include: 

• Providing an evacuation plan is decisive.
  Providing citizens with a tangible evacuation plan, including transportation, routes, and detailed instructions increased message effectiveness by approximately 5%.  
• Message framing alone is ineffective.
  Messages that highlight different possible consequences of staying, such as dying or having worse living conditions did not significantly change the effectiveness of the alerts.  
• Evacuation opportunities matter.
  The people who had received transportation offers or information on how to evacuate by others—such as friends, neighbours, local authorities or the military—were more likely to evacuate after the start of the full-scale evasion.  
• Own planning is important.
  Those who had made own plans about a potential evacuation beforehand were more likely to evacuate than those without such plans.

“Unfortunately, a world without armed conflicts seems utopian. I hope that our study can help to save lives through more effective and targeted evacuation notifications not only in Ukraine but also in other conflict zones,” said Matthias Weber.    

Policy Implications

Based on their analyses, the authors suggest the following to promote evacuations:  

• Prioritize actionable guidance.
  Authorities should focus less on persuasive wording and more on providing clear, practical instructions on where to go, how to get there, and what resources are available.
• Organize and communicate transport options.
  Free buses or other collective transport demonstrate that evacuation plans are well thought out and can substantially increase civilian compliance.  
• Promote household evacuation planning.
  Encouraging families to make preparation plans and emergency kits can improve readiness and increases he probability that they will follow through with evacuation plans.  
• Target vulnerable groups.
  Those responsible for distributing evacuation information should make sure to tailor-make outreach aimed specifically at populations less likely to self-evacuate, like those without transport, lower income households, and women with children.  

Overall, the research shows that focusing on wording and using persuasive language is not enough. Civilians in war zones already understand the risks… they need means and opportunities to evacuate. By embedding actionable evacuation plans into alerts, governments can significantly increase compliance and potentially save many lives.  

After the first results of the study had been documented, two of the study’s co-authors, Dr. Vakhitov and Ms. Zaika presented the study and its findings in meetings with representatives of the Donetsk Regional State Administration (DRSA), volunteers, and members of the White Angels national police unit engaged in evacuations. Donetsk oblast was the target of many attacks and government officials were faced with citizens who were reluctant to adhere to evacuation orders.    

As a result of these meetings, it has subsequently been recommended to those engaged in evacuations to provide potential evacuees with detailed information about the evacuation process, including location and quality of the accommodation and the monetary allowances that evacuees can expect to receive. This new communication strategy proved effective. According to feedback from officials involved in the evacuations, they were able to persuade several families with children, who had previously refused to leave their home in the dangerous areas, with this new approach.  

Civilian Evacuation During War: Evidence from Ukraine by Matthias Weber who is associate professor at the School of Finance (University of St.Gallen), along with Seung-Keun Martinez (University of Nottingham), Monika Pompeo (Kyiv School of Economics), Roman Sheremeta (Case Western Reserve University), Volodymyr Vakhitov (American University, Kyiv) and Nataliia Zaika (American University, Kyiv). It was published in The Economic Journal. 

Image: Adobe Stock / Halfpoint