New consumption index provides insight into the digital wallet

How is consumption changing in times of inflation, online retail, and economic policy interventions? The new Consumer Spending Index (CSI) provides answers to these questions. Developed jointly by payment technology provider Worldline and HSG researchers Prof. Dr. Matthias Fengler, Prof. Dr. Winfried Koeniger, and Jonas Bruhin, the index provides precise, daily insights into the spending behaviour of the population for the first time. It is based on payment terminal data collected since 2018 and thus allows detailed analyses by region and category – from retail to hospitality.

“Our analysis shows that payment data can paint a more accurate and faster picture of consumer reality than traditional survey methods,” says study author Winfried Koeniger. For example, consumption reacts measurably to monetary policy stimuli: a surprise key interest rate hike of 25 basis points leads to a noticeable decline in spending growth within a few weeks.

Consumption on the move – from POS to e-commerce

A key finding of the new index is that the trend toward online shopping continues unabated. While brick-and-mortar stores are losing importance, e-commerce is experiencing steady growth, for example in the accommodation and food sectors. Online spending rose by around 5% year-on-year in December 2024. In addition to seasonal patterns, the CSI also captures short-term changes. For example, it shows how consumer spending can be influenced by daily events, such as weather, media reports, or political decisions. The authors of the study use the following methodology: 

To ensure that the index provides a realistic picture of consumer behaviour over several years, changes in the retailer network and the trend from cash to card payments have been systematically taken into account. The researchers have adjusted the raw data accordingly to avoid distortions. The result is a precise spending index that details regional differences and various consumption categories, enabling reliable comparisons over time.

Practical benefits for business and politics

The granular data opens up new opportunities for economic policy decisions, corporate strategies, and marketing activities. “The CSI is a tool for data-driven decisions – both for public authorities and for companies that want to base their planning on reliable real-time indicators,” says Matthias Fengler. The index also has great potential for economic research. Diana Hurni, Managing Director of Worldline Switzerland, adds: “The cooperation with the University of St.Gallen shows how we can drive innovation forward together. The CSI offers concrete added value for companies, consumers, and society as a whole.”

Analysis to be extended to other regions

The new index is part of the university initiative “Monitoring Consumption Switzerland.” In the long term, it will be further developed and transferred to other countries with the aim of better understanding international consumption patterns and supporting global economic policy decisions with data.

Further information on the study and the CSI methodology can be found at «Consumer Spending Index».

Bild: Adobe Stock / Schlierner